2023 ELECTION BLUES: BEFORE ECSTACY RELEGATES HARDWORK
I have taken active interest and participated in elections in Nigeria from the eve of the 4th Republic, starting with the Local Government elections in 1998. I must menttion that it has been the case of the more I see, the more I understand and I have understood a lot over the years. As the 2023 elections are approaching, I have been seeing so much ecstacy and too few actual work done, I have had so much to write, but too little time to spare to put down the notes. I might just be putting my thoughts in piecemeal these days.
Anyone familiar with the social media would agree that the volume on the Peter Obi candidacy is the loudest at the moment at least in the social media space, but just as it is important for the supporters of other candidates, it is necessary to rehash it to his supporters that ultimately, only ballots cast would be counted, so any noise not directed at winning votes of the people will remain mere noise. To be honest, most of the times, naivety is displayed mostly by those clamouring for Peter Obi, they tend to display too much hysteria but with little understanding of information. Mine is to help with the understanding of misconstrued information, before anyone gets too confident.
Earlier today, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released an update announcing the end of Continous Voter Registeration (CVR) until after the 2023. I have been seeing so much hysteria since the release of the data, suggesting so much confidence that the “youths” would determine the election results in 2023 (which is honestly fine to be honest), but in addition, it is being said that the registration numbers were motivated by the candidature of Peter Obi. For me, those who have this conclusion are not looking at the data and before they get carried away, it is important to give them clarity, so that they will not lose sight of the hardwork that is required to actually get the work done.
The data released today August 01, 2022 is as follows;
Completed Registration — 12,298,944
Youths — 8,784,677
For the records, Peter Obi declared to run on March 24, 2022 and Joined the Labour Party on May 27, 2022, he effectively became a candidate in the 1st week of June, when we can say that his influence started. I decided to look at the numbers released by INEC before he emerged candidate and found the below released on June 06, 2022 by INEC;
Completed Registration — 6,956,252
Youths — 4,856,555
Between June 06 and August 01, the completed registration grew by 5,342,692, while the figure for youths grew by 3,928,122. If we agree that the candidature motivated some numbers, then that number is 3.9 million in fresh registration by the youths. In no way should this number have led to any form of confidence and I will explain.
Firstly, not many people realise that this registration numbers released by INEC are the aggregate of figures since the commencement of the CVR in July 2021, that is to say, people have been doing the registration for one year and because the deadline approached, there was surge in numbers. I have seen this too many times and it does not require the influence of anyone.
Secondly, INEC determines who is a youth using the demographic age bracket of 18–35years of age. These persons could be internet savvy, NURTW apprentice, vulcanizers, mechanics, tailors, they may have access to smart phones or they may not. It will be too much confidence to conclude that the youths in INEC voters register are the same as the youths that are social media savy.
Thirdly, people jubilating over the fresh numbers need to come to the reality that this new figure will only be an addition to the existing 84 million registered voters that we had as at 2019 elections. Of course the factors of migration and death exist, death rate in Nigeria is 1.6% per annum, if we apply this, roughly 5 million of the 84 million voters may have passed on. With the newly concluded registrations, it looks like we are adding 12 million to a 79 million figure.
Why have I shared the above? Simply, it is to advise that people who want their preferred candidate to which should be doing a lot of work on the almost 100m registered voters, it is fine to jubilate and celebrate ahead, I have no problem with it, but it is important to keep in mind that what translates to victory is votes cast. This is so that when results are declared, no one would disagree with results referencing how many people around them talked about how they would vote for a candidate.
I really do want to see a strong multi party race, we were close to having this during the 2007 and 2011 elections. In 2007, it was PDP, ANPP and AC, in 2011, it was PDP, CPC and ACN, earlier in the second republic, we had NPN, UPN and NPP. However, candidly, it is still looking like it will be simply be a 2 horse race between APC and PDP in 2023, I have not seen any other political party with a mass of boots on ground other than the two. I will keep watching developments, but with my experience, nothing else beats loyal boots on ground and I have only seen this in the above mentioned parties as at today.
